Decided to continue blog, at my own pace.Simsci 18 Oct, 05 Tu - 2703
In my last posting of 30 Sep, I was looking for a severe bottom around the middle of October or a few days after. We are right in the midst of that forecast period.
The surge to 2799 on 11 Oct (above 2772) was a bit of a surprise, but that's how the mkt behaves. But the subsequent decline into the middle of the month is not.
As mentioned, "the extent of the decline would depend on the extent of the drama". It looks like so far, the extent of the decline (from 2799 to 2704 around now) is not as severe; I don't hear of any major dramatic news which would have plunged the mkt into a much lower low. But in any case, a drop of about a 100 points (so far) would be useful for traders expecting a decline. Overall, I think the decline should be over by this week.Taiwan Index 18 Oct, Tu - 2432
After the low of 2429 on 28/9W, which was lower that the low of 2449 on 26/9 M, I was a little sceptical that that low would be the "ultimate" low. If the low had been on 26/9M (2449) I would have been more convinced. In any case, 2429 turned out to be quite a decent bottom, with the mkt moving all the way to 2603 (5/10W) before stalling. Then it came all the down and yesterday broke the 2429 low. So now, we are at new lows. My bias now is for the mkt to form a bottom and move up once again. I think the level 0f 2400 or slightly under would be a good level for a bottom. As for timing, around 20/10 Th may be a good time to watch for a bottom; perhaps even a couple of days after that.