Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Nikkei and it's early October

Nikkei - price 16215

Finally it's early October. Based on my earlier forecast, between 2 to 10 October, the Nikkei may see an important change in trend. So I'm looking for the mkt to make a top during this period, probably above the high of 16425 made on 4th Sep.

Wednesday, June 14, 2006

Taking a break from blogging ?

Decided to take a break from blogging ..... until I find inspiration to start again. Anyone who's interested to get in touch with me can always email.

Before I sign off for now, remember what I said about the Nikkei - 2nd to 10th October is a very impt time period. I expect a major turn around there. Till my next posting .....

Friday, May 19, 2006

Waiting for Nikkei to bottom out

Nikkei - price 15995

I will be looking for a bottom for the Nikkei this coming Monday (22/5). Price wise, perhaps somewhere in the region of 15800+ . In any case, as I've said many times, the timing is more impt than the price.

In fact, even Taiwan and Singapore may see a bottom around Monday or Tuesday next week too.

Monday, May 15, 2006

Watch out for the Nikkei in October

Nikkei - 16348

It's still a long way off, but my analysis shows that the Nikkei mkt could see a very major turn this coming October. Probably between 1st to the 10th of October. Will add on more comments later.

For now, I'm just looking out for buying opportunity after the big decline from 17420 on 8 May to 16265 low today. May need to wait for a couple more days though.

Correction in Taiwan Index

Taiwan - price 2972

The mkt did s"some kind of correction", falling 205 points so far, from a high of 3175 on 8 May to a low of 2970 today.

Having fallen for 5 straight days, it is time to be careful on short position. Especially nearer to the end of this week.

Tuesday, May 09, 2006

Taiwan Index may be due for correction

Taiwan - 3160

Taiwan Index has gone up by a huge 514 pts from 2661 (23/3) to 3175 yesterday. Although this is a bull mkt, I think that such a big advance calls for some kind of correction.

Thursday, April 20, 2006

View on Nikkei still the same

Nikkei - price 17350

My last posting on 3 April, the Nikkei was 17345. Right now the price is still the same.

My view remains unchanged. I'm still looking for the mkt to go down. Nikkei made a top 17580 on 7 Apr (was watching for top on 4th or 5th) went down to 16935 low and rebounded. Now I am expecting the mkt to test the 17580 high, with the possibility of making a slightly higher top (17600+ perhaps). Probably between now to late April.

Monday, April 03, 2006

Planning to short the Nikkei

Nikkei - price 17345

I'm looking to short the Nikkei around the 4th or 5th of April. Of course, I would use intraday trading to get into the position, meaning that the intraday mkt has to show weakness for me to get into the short position. Just for a target, I'm looking at a price range of 17400 to 17650 for a top.

It's probably true that I'v been too bearish on the Nikkei for too long. So this top that I'm looking for may not turn out to be very major. Will have to monitor the mkt rather closely.

Thursday, March 30, 2006

Nikkei moving to new high

Nikkei - 17130.

The 16785 top actually showed a very typical pattern for a major top. After that, the thing to do was to look for a secondary (lower) top. I traded the short side in anticipation of a secondary top. The mkt made several attempts to turn down, but each time it managed to recover. After mid March, when the mkt still showed no sign of weakening, it was a warning for sellers to be extra careful. Forecasting and trading are not the same thing ie. despite having a forecast proven wrong, a good trader should not suffer any major losses, or even make some profit.

Well, the mkt has shown its strength. Despite a top formation, there was no secondary top; instead the strength of the mkt carried it above the 16785 top. In such cases (where a the distribution range turned into a base for further advance), I don't expect the mkt to go very much higher. It is like an additional push beyond the 16785 top (when it already showed signs of being almost pumped out). Let's see.

Friday, March 10, 2006

Nikkei looking for a final lower top?

Nikkei - price 16160.

Looking back at my posting on 20 Jan, I proposed that the trendline starting from 11605 low on 8/8/05 is important. Of course only the mkt will decide whether that proposal is valid or not.
Looking at the current chart, that trendline has supported the 2 major bottoms since then ie. 15385 low on 20/2/06 and 15550 low on 8/3/06.

On the chart, the Nikkei looks like it is heading back up again. But my view is that the Nikkei has made a significant top on 6/2/06 at 16785. And I think that top should hold for quite a while. I would watch for a final secondary top (below 16785) from which the mkt would really start to decline. Watch out if and when the trendline is broken.

Wednesday, February 15, 2006

A lower top for the Nikkei ?

Nikkei - price 16270

The Nikkei made a top of 16785 on 6 Feb and declined to 15685 low yesterday.

To me, the mkt appears to be moving up to make a secondary top (below the 16785 top) before resuming the downward move. That downward move should break the 15685 low (and perhaps the 15050 bottom of 18 Jan). Overall, I'm still bearish on the Nikkei over the next few weeks.

Wednesday, February 01, 2006

Nikkei moves into new high

Nikkei - price 16635

I had thought the Nikkei would react below the 15050 low before crossing the 16595 high. The mkt did not do that, but instead continued to power up. So far, a high of 16760 has been reached. At this point, I wouldn't want to go long or short. Just staying neutral, until further evaluation.

Friday, January 20, 2006

Nikkei Chart


A chart of the Nikkei. To me, 11605 low on 8/8/05 is impt. That was when the Prime Minister announced that he would be calling for a snap election. I think the trend line shown may be impt.

Nothing much to comment; actually, the purpose of this posting is to test out the new chart that I'm using.

Nikkei - back to big picture

Nikkei - price 15780

After the "Livedoor shock" the Nikkei plunged to 15050. In my last posting (when Nikkei closed at 15320), I mentioned about a technical rebound. The mkt climbed all the way to 15880 this morning - the retracement from 15050 to 15880 level is quite a rebound.

So we are back to the big picture. I called for a technical rebound, meaning that I don't think the decline to 15050 is the full reaction. All the while I've been looking for at least a 3 week reaction. Based on that, we should see the Nikkei below the 15050 low achieved so far.

Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Nikkei oversold ?

Nikkei - price 15320

I normally look at the market at least over the medium term (several days). Some of my forecasts are rather long term eg. I'm expecting an uptrend for the Simsci & Taiwan until August/September 2006.

However, the plunge in the Nikkei from 16490 to 15050 over 3 days - I think that's overdone. So I would say that in the near term, the market may not have much more downside. There should be a technical rebound very soon.

In my last posting, I said to watch the 15200 level carefully. Today, the mkt went under that level swiftly, hit 15050, then recovered to basically above the 15200 level within 15 minutes. If one did not watch that level carefully, one could have missed the plunge to the 15050 low altogether.

Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Nikkei tumbles

Nikkei - price 15760

After rising to 16330 this morning (attempting to recover the year opening at 16350 ?), Nikkei finally showed its hand and tumbled all the way down to 15750. The volume was extremely huge (119,000); this seems to indicate that the decline has more to go. There will be technical rebounds for sure, but I think the market has not reached its bottom yet.

As mentioned in the previous postings, I'm looking at a minimum 3 week decline. This is the 2nd week, so there should be more to come. For now, I would watch the 15200 level carefully.

Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Nikkei beginning to move down?

Nikkei - 16150

Finally, it seems that Nikkei may have started its move down. Last night the Dow managed to close above 11000. This morning Nikkei opened strong at 16490, reached 16515, and then started to slide down, closing near the low at 16150. The very heavy volume (88,000) seems to point to further weaknesses to come. As mentioned in my last posting, I'm looking for at least a 3 week decline. Let's see whether this is the one.

Thursday, January 05, 2006

Brand New Year

It's always great to be starting on a brand new year, as far as trading is concerned.

Nikkei - 16370

Nikkei in 2005 was the star performer. However, I'm thinking that it has risen too quickly. From a low of 10765 on 21/4/05 to today's high of 16595, the index has risen 5830 pts. It did that without having a 3 week pullback - amazing. This is something which the Nikkei has not done in the last 12 years or so. It has not advanced or decline more than 5800 pts without at least a 3 week reversal - so the odds are against any further increase.

My take is that there should be a meaningful reaction anytime - I'm looking at at least 3 weeks of decline. So my bias is to short the market and wait for the expected reaction.


Simsci - 2864 Taiwan - 2845

My views remain the same since my last posting on 30 Nov 05. Then the indices were much lower (Simsci - 2736; Taiwan - 2616). I'm looking for both markets to advance until August/September of 2006. Of course along the way there will be runups followed by reactions - the main thing to do is to look for the right time to go long.

Tuesday, December 13, 2005

No posting for a week or so

Will not be posting for the next 10 days or so - on vacation.

Looking forward to a great year in 2006. Wishing all a rewarding year ahead.

Wednesday, November 30, 2005

Simsci & Taiwan

Simsci - 2736 ; Taiwan - 2616

I had been weary about going long for both Simsci and Taiwan, but the markets proved me wrong.

After that, I had a good look at both markets to determine the longer term prospect. What I came up with is rather similar for both markets. The lows of 2580 (Simsci) and 2340 (Taiwan) should turn out to be very significant bottoms, even though the date of 28 October is rather rare as major bottoms. But they do happen once a while, such as the low of 1493 (Simsci) and 1725 (Taiwan) both on 28 Apr 2003. Anyway, I don't expect the lows of 2580 & 2340 to be broken for a very long time (years?).

I am now bullish for both Simsci and Taiwan, probably up to August/early September of 2006. That's a rather long-term outlook, but I think it helps to have a view of where the markets are heading toward. Along the way, there are bound to be ups and downs, but because of my bullish forecast, I would be watching for the ups more closely.

More close up views of the markets will follow.

Wednesday, November 09, 2005

Nikkei hits new high

Nikkei 9 Nov, 05 W - 13980

My previous posting on 20 Oct:
"As I said, I was looking for a top for the Nikkei in the last quarter of this year. It may be a bit early to say, but the year high (so far) of 13785 on 5 Oct looks good enough to be the high for 2005. After a run up of about 2 and a half years from the low of 7600, it may be time for a turn down. This is quite preliminary, and some follow-up will be needed."

Before I had a chance to look into my preliminary analysis, the mkt has already proven me wrong. It went up to a new high of 14100 on 4 Nov F. Looks like I'm a bit out of synch with the Nikkei - in any case, I'm still open for a top in the Nikkei in the last quarter of this year.

Wednesday, November 02, 2005

Comments on Singapore stocks?

I have been thinking about putting in comments on Singapore stocks, apart from comments on the futures markets (ie. Simsci, Nikkei & Taiwan Index). I know that there are already many blogs on Singapore stocks, so I'm wondering whether readers out there would be interested ........

Monday, October 31, 2005

Where are Simsci and Taiwan headed?

Simsci 31 Oct, 05 M - 2634

The low of 2590 (21/10) did not hold. The mkt made a lower low of 2580 on 28 Oct. Although it rallied strongly today, the fact that the 2590 low was broken may signal further weaknesses ahead.

Taiwan 31 Oct, 05 M - 2405

Similarly, the low of 2346 (20/10) also did not hold. Just as the Simsci, the Taiwan index dipped to 2340 on 28 Oct, and rallied today. Don't really have any strong opinion of the mkt, except to say that I would be weary of going long.

Wednesday, October 26, 2005

Review of major Taiwan forecast



Previously I reviewed a major Simsci forecast; here I will review a major Taiwan index forecast.

My first posting on this forecast on 19 Apr, 05:
"On a big picture, this mkt seems to be setting itself up for a major move to the upside. The bottom is either 2336 (18/4) or perhaps slightly lower on 22/4 F or 25/4 M. In any case, I will only be looking to go long - no more shorts."

Extract from posting on 26 Apr:
"Was watching for a low either on 22/4 F or 25 /4 M. As it turned out, the low came in at 2315 on 21/4 Th, one day earlier. This makes it a little harder to read the market ie. is the 2315 low going to hold? I would feel more comfortable with the turns coming in on the "right" date."

Extract from posting on 5 May:
"In the big picture, in the next few weeks, if we see a upward creeping mkt, it could be pointing to a breakout on the upside - above the 2627 top."

OUTCOME

I was expecting a major bottom around 22/4 F or 25/4 M. As shown on the graph, the bottom actually came in on 21/4 Th, early by one day. For a major bottom, a difference of one day is acceptable. The low of 2315 on 21/4 is very significant. Even up to today (26 Oct), the low has not been broken yet.

Managed to put in a chart

I've added a chart of Simsci to my earlier posting of 24 Oct, showing where I first posted my forecast of a top on the 3rd week of March, and where the top actually came in.

This is my first time creating and posting a chart on the blog - had to put in quite a bit of effort, for a low tech person like me. I know the chart is very basic, but that's how we start. Welcome any suggestion for improvement.

Yopy, thanks for your suggestion of adding charts.

Tuesday, October 25, 2005

Watching and waiting

Simsci 25 Oct, 05 Tu - 2624

My comments on 20 Oct:
"The second part of my forecast was for a mkt to form a severe bottom "around mid October or a few days after". Meaning that the mkt should start to move up after the severe bottom. We will have to see whether this expected bottom materialize and thus complete the full extent of the forecast."

So far, Simsci made a low of 2590 on 21 Oct F. That would qualify as "a few days after after mid October". Also the drop to 2590 was quite severe, basically a drop of 209 points from the high of 2799. Of course that low has not been proven yet, although the mkt has advanced 78 points (from 2590 to 2668). Now it's a matter of letting the mkt show its hand.

Taiwan Index 25 Oct, 05 Tu - 2384

My last posting on 18 Oct:
"So now, we are at new lows. My bias now is for the mkt to form a bottom and move up once again. I think the level 0f 2400 or slightly under would be a good level for a bottom. As for timing, around 20/10 Th may be a good time to watch for a bottom; perhaps even a couple of days after that."

The Taiwan index made a low (so far) of 2346 on 20/10. The time looks OK, although it went down a little lower than the target price of "slightly under 2400". Just as for Simsci, we have to wait to see whether the 2346 low can hold. It went up to 2433 today, although it closed substantially lower at 2384.

Monday, October 24, 2005

Review of major Simsci forecast


I started this blog in Jan this year. Following is the extract from the first posting on 7 Jan, 05:

"Yesterday (6/1 Th) simsci crossed into new high, reaching 2507. Looks like it should be heading higher.
An important time to watch for the simsci is around mid to 3rd week of Mar this year. As to whether a top or bottom will form, it is too early to speculate. Will decide when we are nearer the date."


Posting on 27 Jan, 05:
"On the bigger picture, I'm still looking at the Simsci reaching for a top in March. Let's hope that the ranges will be bigger, and hopefully more tradeable. Nothing else much to say, in such a market."

7 Feb, 05:
"After hitting a high of 2530 on 2 Feb last week, the mkt only managed to "correct" down to 2508 on 4 Feb. A very shallow move down (22 points only), which I think may reflect the strength in the Simsci.
Today, the mkt continues to make new highs. Possibility of simsci continuing its upward march, all the way to the month of March. Wondering whether it will be a "mini runaway market", somewhat similar to the major runup to 3505 high in 3 Jan 2000."


10 Mar, 05:
"Since the beginning of my posting (the first posting, in fact), I have been talking about the Simsci making a major turn around middle to 3rd week of March. Based on the pattern of the market I thought it is more likely to be a top. So far, Simsci has been climbing slowly, but steadily.

We are now just before the forecast period. I am still expecting a top, but it has not been a runaway market like that leading to the 3505 extreme high in Jan 2000."

OUTCOME

I was basically looking for a top for Simsci around the middle to 3rd week of March. The mkt made a top of 2608 on 18 Mar, 2005. From there, it went down to a low of 2464 on 18 Apr. The top of 2608 lasted for about 2 and a half months, until it was finally crossed on 8 June.

Fortunately, the first forecast in my blog turned out to be accurate - obviously, some of my other forecasts did not hit the mark; naturally I won't be spending too much time talking about those.

Thursday, October 20, 2005

Looking at the Nikkei

Nikkei 20 Oct, 05 Th - 13205

My last posting on Nikkei, on 23 Sep:

"My view of the Nikkei hasn't changed. The mkt did show an upward trend for the past few months. In fact, it was probably the best mkt to have been in - on hindsight.
We are now coming into the last quarter of the year, and as mentioned in my last posting, I am looking at a top coming in in this last quarter. It's probably time to start looking at this mkt again."


As I said, I was looking for a top for the Nikkei in the last quarter of this year. It may be a bit early to say, but the year high (so far) of 13785 on 5 Oct looks good enough to be the high for 2005. After a run up of about 2 and a half years from the low of 7600, it may be time for a turn down. This is quite preliminary, and some follow-up will be needed.

Hits & Misses

It must be quite obvious that I quote my previous postings quite frequently. This way, I am accountable for my forecasts and reading of the markets. It's very easy to explain why the market went up or came down, with hindsight. And one can even be convinced that he had expected the move. But to put down a forecast in advance puts a stop to all these rationalizing. Unless of course I go in and edit my postings to match what the market actually did (can be done actually??).

This is one of the reasons why I wanted to start a blog. To log in my thoughts and forecasts in advance, and then review them to see whether they came in right or wrong.
For sure, there have been hits and misses. One of these days, I would like to do a review of some of the major forecasts that I made during 2005.

Will Simsci form a bottom ?

Simsci 20 Oct, 05 Th - 2618

To recap, my thoughts on Simsci on 30 Sep was:

"The 2772 high of 12 Sep has not been crossed - I see that as a bad omen. In fact, I see the possibility of Simsci encountering quite a bit of drama in October. The extent of the decline would depend on the extent of the drama. I would watch around mid October (or a few days after) for a severe bottom."

Firstly, I'm sure most would agree that there was quite a bit of drama yesterday, with the STI making its biggest one-day fall this year.

The second part of my forecast was for a mkt to form a severe bottom "around mid October or a few days after". Meaning that the mkt should start to move up after the severe bottom. We will have to see whether this expected bottom materialize and thus complete the full extent of the forecast.

Tuesday, October 18, 2005

OK, will continue blog

Decided to continue blog, at my own pace.

Simsci 18 Oct, 05 Tu - 2703

In my last posting of 30 Sep, I was looking for a severe bottom around the middle of October or a few days after. We are right in the midst of that forecast period.
The surge to 2799 on 11 Oct (above 2772) was a bit of a surprise, but that's how the mkt behaves. But the subsequent decline into the middle of the month is not.

As mentioned, "the extent of the decline would depend on the extent of the drama". It looks like so far, the extent of the decline (from 2799 to 2704 around now) is not as severe; I don't hear of any major dramatic news which would have plunged the mkt into a much lower low. But in any case, a drop of about a 100 points (so far) would be useful for traders expecting a decline. Overall, I think the decline should be over by this week.


Taiwan Index 18 Oct, Tu - 2432

After the low of 2429 on 28/9W, which was lower that the low of 2449 on 26/9 M, I was a little sceptical that that low would be the "ultimate" low. If the low had been on 26/9M (2449) I would have been more convinced. In any case, 2429 turned out to be quite a decent bottom, with the mkt moving all the way to 2603 (5/10W) before stalling. Then it came all the down and yesterday broke the 2429 low. So now, we are at new lows. My bias now is for the mkt to form a bottom and move up once again. I think the level 0f 2400 or slightly under would be a good level for a bottom. As for timing, around 20/10 Th may be a good time to watch for a bottom; perhaps even a couple of days after that.

Monday, October 03, 2005

Should I continue this blog?

I started this blog on trading on 7 Jan 2005.

9 months and 65 postings later, I'm just thinking whether I should continue my comments on the markets, or just call it a day for my "experiment on blogging". I started the blog to put in my thoughts on Simsci, Nikkei and Taiwan Index. It was more as a record of my hits and misses, and hopefully this would help me to look back at my trading objectively; perhaps it would also be of interest to other traders.

I would be happy to receive any feedback from any interested reader. If possible, put some kind of identity to your comments instead of using "anonymous" .... how abt that?

Saturday, October 01, 2005

Has Taiwan made a bottom?

Taiwan 30 Sep 2005 F - 2552

In my last posting on 22 Sep, when Taiwan Index was at 2496:

"Now I am still seeing a bottom forming up for the Taiwan mkt. It could come in tomorrow 23/9 F or 26/9 M. This bottom could be below the 2480 low of 31/8; probably not very much below that. As I said earlier, I shall not say that it would be the final low of the year. I would just say that it could turn out to be important."

Now the question is whether Taiwan made a bottom on 26/9M as predicted. It happens to be rather tricky in this instance. Taiwan Sep contract made a low of 2449 on 26/9 and over the next 3 days traded higher without breaking the 2449 low. Based on that the low came in on 26/9M.

The tricky part comes from the Oct contract. On 26/9M Oct contract made a low of 2454; but on 28/9W it dropped to 2429 for a couple of seconds then recovered to trade at the 2470 level. From there the mkt recovered strongly to reach 2570 on 30/9. Technically the low for the Oct contract was made on 28/9W, 2 days from my forecast date of 26/9M.

We will have see whether the low (2449 Sep contract or 2429 Oct contract) turns out to be impt. I can accept 26/9M as an impt bottom (Sep contract) but will be more cautious if 28/9W is considered the bottom (Oct contract).

For the moment, my attention is more on Simsci.

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Friday, September 30, 2005

Dark Clouds moving towards Simsci ?

Simsci 30 Sep, 05 F - 2729

In the big picture, my view posted on 13 Sep has not changed:

"The Simsci mkt has been trading in a range of 2675 and 2748 for about a month. And yesterday (12/9 M), it did a "breakout" advancing all the way to 2772.

I did not have any strong opinion on the Simsci during this period. It's probably because my attention was on the Taiwan mkt. However, I am beginning to view the 2824 top of 3 Aug as a major top. The "breakout" from the range could very well turn out to be a false breakout. In that case, a low below 2675 should be coming.

In fact, watch out for the 2772 high on 12 Sep - if that is not crossed soon, it could turn out to be the secondary top after the 2824 top."


The 2772 high of 12 Sep has not been crossed - I see that as a bad omen. In fact, I see the possibility of Simsci encountering quite a bit of drama in October. The extent of the decline would depend on the extent of the drama. I would watch around mid October (or a few days after) for a severe bottom.

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Friday, September 23, 2005

Simsci 23 Sep, 05 F - 2705

Simsci has been holding on fairly well in the past week or so. Even in the face of falling US mkts and rising oil prices, the reaction on the Simsci has been very minor. Is this resilience or "just plain stubborn"?

Even today, after the dip to 2693 low (so far), the mkt is back at 2705. I would not want to be in short position in such a mkt. In fact, one should watch for a possible low either today or 26/9 Monday. Remember the extreme bottom of 1436 on 24 Sep 2001 - this is 4 years later, so caution is needed.

Nikkei 23 Sep, 05 F - 13135

I haven't commented on the Nikkei for a long time. In fact, on searching back, my last posting on the Nikkei was on 28 April (when the Nikkei was trading at 10955):

"The nikkei mkt has been trading in a range for more than a year. The channel that it's moving in is currently between 12200 and 10680 (roughtly). That means the current price is near the lower end of the channel. However, the mkt has not broken below the channel yet, so we will have to wait and see.

Overall, my expectation for the Nikkei is for an upward move until the last qtr of the year. But, looking at the ranging mkt, I don't really want to put much emphasis on this mkt until a clearer trend is shown."

My view of the Nikkei hasn't changed. The mkt did show an upward trend for the past few months. In fact, it was probably the best mkt to have been in - on hindsight.
We are now coming into the last quarter of the year, and as mentioned in my last posting, I am looking at a top coming in in this last quarter. It's probably time to start looking at this mkt again.

Thursday, September 22, 2005

Taiwan 22 Sep, Th - 2496

On 2 Sep, after the low of 2480 was made, I thought that would be the final low of the year. The mkt did rally somewhat, making a high of 2595 on 13 Sep. That was a resistance level, and it was unable to cross it. Not a bullish sign. However, there's lots of time to be defensive and even get out of long position (with profit) once the mkt shows signs of turning down.

Now the mkt is back to testing the 2480 low. I had thought that would be the final low of the year - looks like I have to change my forecast once again. Looking back to my forecasts, it seems that I managed to call turning tops and bottoms. But I was too eager to state that these turning points would be very significant (eg. the final low of the year). In any case, as long as the mkt turned in the direction of the forecast, a trader should be able to profit from it; one should always be watching the development of the mkt and not let a profit turn into a loss.

Now I am still seeing a bottom forming up for the Taiwan mkt. It could come in tomorrow 23/9 F or 26/9 M. This bottom could be below the 2480 low of 31/8; probably not very much below that. As I said earlier, I shall not say that it would be the final low of the year. I would just say that it could turn out to be important.

Has the Dow bottomed out ?

My posting of 1 Sep:

"It is possible that the US mkts (Dow 10502) may have made a turn around and an advance may start from here. The low of the Dow was 10355 on 30/8 Tu, which could turn out to be the bottom. I think there is a likelihood that it may make a sustained move on the upside.
Similarly, regional mkts may also be moving in the same direction."

The Dow actually went up to a high of 10705 on 12 Sep; but it could not cross the multiples tops around that level and instead fell back. With a low of 10405 last night, it is back to testing the 10355 low. Sometimes what we think is a major bottom (or top) may turn out to be a minor one; in fact, this forecast may just turn out that way. However, a good trader should still be able to profit from a minor turn (1 week's run).

Tuesday, September 13, 2005

Simsci 13 Sep, 05 Tu - 2743

The Simsci mkt has been trading in a range of 2675 and 2748 for about a month. And yesterday (12/9 M), it did a "breakout" advancing all the way to 2772.

I did not have any strong opinion on the Simsci during this period. It's probably because my attention was on the Taiwan mkt. However, I am beginning to view the 2824 top of 3 Aug as a major top. The "breakout" from the range could very well turn out to be a false breakout. In that case, a low below 2675 should be coming.

In fact, watch out for the 2772 high on 12 Sep - if that is not crossed soon, it could turn out to be the secondary top after the 2824 top.

Saturday, September 03, 2005

Simsci 2 Sep, F - 2740

In my last posting on Simsci on 23 Aug when the Simsci was 2709:

"The mkt made a low of 2675 on 15 Aug, the day of my last posting (which called for a low). Based on the action over the past one week since the low, it seems that the mkt is struggling to turn up - doesn't look like the typical bottom followed by a continuation of the uptrend. Caution needed for long position."

Since then, although the mkt did not break the 2675 low, it would have taken very strong hands to be able to hold on their long positions. On 25/8, the low was 2682 ; on 29/8, the low was 2681 ; on 30/8 the low of the day was 2684.

In such a ranging mkt, it would probably been better to have stayed out of this mkt and attention focused on other mkts. Of course the next question is where the mkt is headed from here ......

Taiwan 2 Sep, F - 2540

The mkt went below 2552 (19 Aug) as mentioned in my last posting. When it went to 2529 on 29 Aug, I thought that was good enough for a bottom. However, it went down to 2499 for a couple of days and then on 31/8 it dipped down to 2480, but closed at 2512.

That's the risk involved in trying to buy near the bottom (or selling near the top). But at the risk of being proven wrong again, I'm going to say that the 2480 low on 31/8 is the bottom I was looking for. If it turns out right, then that low should not be broken again for the rest of the year. (Usually after a statement like that, the mkt would go ahead and break it soon after, haha).

Thursday, September 01, 2005

Has the Dow bottomed out ?

It is possible that the US mkts (Dow 10502) may have made a turn around and an advance may start from here. The low of the Dow was 10355 on 30/8 Tu, which could turn out to be the bottom. I think there is a likelihood that it may make a sustained move on the upside.

Similarly, regional mkts may also be moving in the same direction.

Wednesday, August 24, 2005

Taiwan 24 Aug, W - 2557

My previous posting on 22/8:

"The Taiwan mkt made a low 2552 on 19 Aug, and has made a small turn up to 2582 so far. Although this is in line with my expectation of a low on either 19 Aug or 22 Aug, I don't "feel" that the 2552 low is the final low. As such, I am giving it at least a few more days for the possibility of a lower low (below 2552) before going long."

The mkt advanced to 2600 and then turned around to test the 2552 low. This morning it reached a low of 2556 and closed near that level. I'm still giving it a couple more days for the possibility of a lower low before seeing a continuation of the uptrend.


Tuesday, August 23, 2005

Simsci 23 Aug, Tu - 2709

The mkt made a low of 2675 on 15 Aug, the day of my last posting (which called for a low). Based on the action over the past one week since the low, it seems that the mkt is struggling to turn up - doesn't look like the typical bottom followed by a continuation of the uptrend. Caution needed for long position.

Monday, August 22, 2005

Taiwan 22 Aug, M - 2575

The Taiwan mkt made a low 2552 on 19 Aug, and has made a small turn up to 2582 so far. Although this is in line with my expectation of a low on either 19 Aug or 22 Aug, I don't "feel" that the 2552 low is the final low. As such, I am giving it at least a few more days for the possibility of a lower low (below 2552) before going long.

Thursday, August 18, 2005

Taiwan 18 Aug, Th - 2600

Taiwan looks like preparing for a low, possibly below 2576 low of 17/8.

I will be watching very closely for a bottom around this weekend, which means Friday 19/8 or Monday 22/8. If the low happens around here, it could turn out to be very important for the rest of the year.

Monday, August 15, 2005

Simsci 15 Aug, 05 M - 2685

The market is moving from one extreme to the other. The rush up started from 2664 (18/7) and reached 2824 (3/8); during that time, many were calling for "cheong ah", even after the mkt started to decline after the 2824 top. With the mkt down substantially, these calls are less frequent and things are quieter.

I think it may be about time to look to go long these few days, starting today. The 2664 low is crucial, and should not be broken if the mkt is to resume uptrend. That point was where the rush up started, and if it is broken all bets are off.

Friday, August 12, 2005

Simsci 12 Aug, 05 F - 2717

What goes up has to come down. The rush to buy after the announcement of the changes in the property regulations was overdone, and caused the mkt to be overbought.

The top came in at 2824 on 3/8 W. For those who follow Gann, there is an interesting point to note. The increase started from 2664 (18/7) and ended on 2824 (3/8); that is an increase of 16.0 points in 16 days ie. exactly 1.0 point per day. That puts pressure on the mkt, and it tumbled quited substantially.

Everyone seems to be expecting the STI to reach 2500, perhaps too impatiently. There is a valid reason for the 2500 target based on simple calculation, but timing is another matter.

Saturday, July 23, 2005

Taiwan 23 Jul, 05 Sa - 2670

Well 2704 (15/7 F) did not turn out to be a top. For those who shorted the mkt around the 2688 level, it was a bit of a challenge to hang on. For 2 days, the mkt tried very hard to rally - reached 2720 on 20/7 (W) and 2725 on 21/7 (Th). But on both days, after each rally, the market basically "collapsed" and ended up weak. It closed the week at 2670. So the shorts are doing ok, for now.
But at this point, it seems to me that the mkt is also rather reluctant to decline. I would remain neutral, until further analysis.

Friday, July 22, 2005

Simsci 22 Jul, 05 F - 2779

What a difference 3 days make ! In my last posting of 19 Jul, simsci was trading at 2678 and now it is 2779. At that point, I noticed that the mkt did not seem to want to go down, and changed my view from bearish to neutral.
Not only was the mkt reluctant to go down, it was all ready to fly up. Of course the reason for the advance was the announcement in Parliament of the changes in the property regulations. However, my belief is that there are those in the mkt who were already aware of the coming announcement and anticipated the the likely reaction of the mkt ... that's probably why the decline from 12/7 (2688 high) to 18/7 (2664 low) was so shallow and slow. In any case, the mkt somehow almost always "anticipates" coming events ... our job as traders is to watch the charts.

Looks like simsci is currently overbought.

Tuesday, July 19, 2005

Taiwan 19 Jul 05, Tu - 2688

Since my last post on 6 July when the mkt was at 2579, Taiwan Index has advanced to reach 2704 on 15/7 F. Once again, it is trading around the upper end of the channel. I feel that the mkt may move down from here. In fact, I would not be surprised if 2704 on 15/7 F turns out to be a nice top.

Simsci 19 Jul, 05 Tu - 2678

The mkt doesn't seem to want to go down. Since the high of 2688 on 12 July, the mkt has had a "hard time" moving down. It touched a low of 2664 yesterday and once again closed firm at 2678. Recap of the past 5 days' closing: 11/7 2683 ; 12/7 2677 ; 13/7 2675 ; 14/7 2678 ; 15/7 2679 ; 18/7 2678.

Don't think there's much one can do, except to wait for the mkt to decide and show where it is headed. Keeping a neutral view of the mkt.

Saturday, July 16, 2005

Simsci 16 Jul 05 Sa - 2679

Since my previous posting of 12 Jul Tu, the mkt has moved ...... 1 tick (2678 to 2679). Those who are following the simsci will know very well that the ranges were very small over the past few days. With the mkt trading near new highs and the very narrow ranges, I see more chances of a downturn than a continuation of the upward trend. This is especially so for the STI, which had narrow ranges and large volumes for several days - looks more like distribution than accumulation.

Tuesday, July 12, 2005

Simsci 12 Jul 05 Tu - price 2678

I have been basically looking for a top in the Simsci for a while. See my postings of 26 Jun (price 2651) and 6 Jul (price 2666).

I thought 6-8 Jul may be a possible time for a top in the Simsci; 6 Jul W high was 2675, followed by 2 days of relative weakness. 7/7 Th saw a low of 2640 closing at 2645. Then came the news of the London blasts. The following day 8/7 F, the mkt tried to go down but could not even break the 2640 low, although it closed "weak" at 2645. It did not look like the high of 2675 would hold.

Once again, Simsci is trading at a new high, reaching 2688 this morning. In the big picture, the mkt hasn't really gained that much ie. 26 Jun 2651, 6 Jul 2666 and now 2678.

I am not interested to go long at the moment. Still looking for a top and turn down. This time, better not give any forecast date for a top .... the last couple of forecast for a top, the mkt simply did a very small top, dipped for a couple of days and continued to crawl upwards. Like I said, still watching for a top.

Wednesday, July 06, 2005

Simsci 6 Jul 05 W - 2666

My last posting on Simsci on 26 Jun:

"Let me make another wild guess once again. And it is something which I just come across this afternoon. I know some more time is needed before coming to a conclusion, but this is what I'm thinking:
There is a possibility that the 2651 high reached on 24/6F could turn out to be a major top. Both the price level and time seem to support that possibility. And if the mkt falls back below the 2608 top once again, then things can get pretty bad. We will have a clearer picture soon."

Once again, trying to catch the top proved to be wrong. However, when trading against the trend, one has to be very careful and defensive. After the 2651 high of 24/6, the mkt actually dipped for 2 days, down to a low of 2616 on 28/6 Tu. But it did not go below the 2608 top, which makes the decline a little suspicious. There was enough time to get out of shorts once the mkt showed reluctance to go down further.

Even at the moment, with the Simsci trading at a new high, I would not want to go long. Still looking for a top around here, perhaps from 6-8 July.

Taiwan 6 Jul 05 W - 2579

My last posting on Taiwan on 21 Jun:

"I think that the Taiwan mkt is locked into a gradual upward channel. In fact the high of 2677 is near the upper range of the channel. As such, I don't think the mkt is able to move up much above 2677 in the coming weeks. It could move up to slightly above 2677, perhaps topping between 2677 and 2720.
I will be watching for a top either around 24/6 or around 1/7, both Fridays."

The mkt did go above the high of 2677. It reached 2693 on 23/6 Th, one day before the target date of 24/6. From there, it was down quite substantially and touched 2551 (July contract) on 1/7 F. Now the mkt is trading nearer to the lower end of the upward channel. In fact, it has gone below that channel, so the question is whether it would get back up into the channel and resume the uptrend. The mkt seems to be ranging and I don't really have any strong opinion at the moment. Got to wait ... for the mkt to show a clearer indication, or perhaps for inspiration.

Saturday, June 25, 2005

Simsci 26 Jun 05, Sa - price 2651

My last posting on Simsci on 2 Jun:

"Simsci has not been doing much in the past 3 months or so. The top of 2608 on 18 March is still holding, although the mkt seems to be well supported most of the time.

I would be weary about holding long position at the current level. In fact, if today's high of 2585 is crossed tomorrow, it may be time to go the opposite direction ie short. However, a lot of patience is needed to trade the Simsci as the movement is relatively small and the trading day is rather long. What to do .... that is the mkt we have in Simsci."

I haven't been paying much attention to the Simsci, as it wasn't doing much for a few months. When 2/6 high 2585 was crossed on 3/6 F, it reached 2589 and then dipped to 2574 on 6/6 M. But from there, the mkt advanced steadily to reach 2651 yesterday. My idea of shorting the mkt turned out to be right for just one day - anything beyond that would have resulted in losses. Not a good call, especially for those who are not nimble in the mkt.

Let me make another wild guess once again. And it is something which I just come across this afternoon. I know some more time is needed before coming to a conclusion, but this is what I'm thinking:
There is a possibility that the 2651 high reached on 24/6F could turn out to be a major top. Both the price level and time seem to support that possibility. And if the mkt falls back below the 2608 top once again, then things can get pretty bad. We will have a clearer picture soon.

Tuesday, June 21, 2005

Interesting blog - swin futures trading

I came across an interesting blog called swin futures trading. This blog has daily postings on the markets, mainly simsci and nikkei.

To get to that blog, look under "Interesting Links" on my blog.

Taiwan 21 Jun 05 - price 2632

Since my last posting of 2 June, the mkt has gotten out of the ranging mode. But there was no dip in mid June which I thought might happen. It just continued to move up above the 2537 level without a pause.

Just a recap from my earlier posting of 5 May 05:

"In the big picture, in the next few weeks, if we see a upward creeping mkt, it could be pointing to a breakout on the upside - above the 2627 top."

The mkt has definitely crossed the 2627 top, reaching a high of 2677 on 17/6 F. Where is the mkt headed for now?
I think that the Taiwan mkt is locked into a gradual upward channel. In fact the high of 2677 is near the upper range of the channel. As such, I don't think the mkt is able to move up much above 2677 in the coming weeks. It could move up to slightly above 2677, perhaps topping between 2677 and 2720.
I will be watching for a top either around 24/6 or around 1/7, both Fridays.

Thursday, June 02, 2005

Simsci 2 Jun 05, Th - price 2584

Simsci has not been doing much in the past 3 months or so. The top of 2608 on 18 March is still holding, although the mkt seems to be well supported most of the time.

I would be weary about holding long position at the current level. In fact, if today's high of 2585 is crossed tomorrow, it may be time to go the opposite direction ie short. However, a lot of patience is needed to trade the Simsci as the movement is relatively small and the trading day is rather long. What to do .... that is the mkt we have in Simsci.

Taiwan 2 Jun 05, Th - price 2496

I wish there was more to write about for the Taiwan mkt, but the fact is that it is still in range trading. So far, this is about the 5th week that the mkt is stuck in a range. I think it should be getting out of the range quite soon.

Just a little forecast that the mkt may dip somewhat to about mid June followed by a push above the 2537 level in the later part of June. I wouldn't take this forecast too seriously though, simply because in a ranging mkt anything can happen.

Thursday, May 26, 2005

Taiwan 26 May 05, Th - price 2499

Since my last posting, the Taiwan Index had a hard time rallying. Went up to 2527, down to 2465 .... then went up to 2537, down to 2462 ... went up to 2518, down to 2472.
But at the same time, the mkt has been well supported at the 2460+ level. 2465 was the opening price of the second quarter, and at times such opening prices act as support or resistance.

Everyone is waiting to see whether the mkt is going to break to the upside or downside. Me too.
I feel that if the mkt pushes upward from here, it might face more resistance around the 2560 level.

Monday, May 16, 2005

Taiwan 16 May 05, M - price 2518

Posting on 19 Apr 05:

"On a big picture, this mkt seems to be setting itself up for a major move to the upside. The bottom is either 2336 (18/4) or perhaps slightly lower on 22/4 F or 25/4 M. In any case, I will only be looking to go long - no more shorts.

From a low of 2315 on 21/4, the mkt has moved up substantially to a high of 2525 last Friday 13/5. I think it is time for those long to be cautious these few days, starting today. In fact, it may be time to trade the opposite direction ie. short, preferably above last Friday's high of 2525.

Today is about one year from 17/5/04, which was the time last year when most of the world markets had a significant bottom. Important to watch for a top for the Taiwan mkt.



Wednesday, May 11, 2005

Simsci 11 May 05, W - price 2567

After the high of 2573 on 6/5 Friday, the mkt basically traded in a small range for the following Monday and Tuesday. After the 2 days of range trading, I decided to give it 1 more day for the mkt to show it's hand.

Today, when the mkt opened weak, I thought that the top of 2573 is finally confirmed. However, as mentioned in the previous posting, a better indication would be for Friday's low of 2542 to be broken. I waited for that level to be broken, but the low for today was exactly 2542.

In the afternoon, when the mkt retested the earlier day high of 2553, I basically got out of my short position. Need to take another look at the big picture once again.

Monday, May 09, 2005

Simsci 9 May 05, M - price 2561

The high of 2573 on 6/5 Friday managed to hold today. As such, I will take it that 2573 is the top, although it would have been a better indication if Friday's low of 2542 was broken.

If 2573 is crossed (even by 1 tick), then the forecast top on either 6/5 F or 9/5 M would be proven wrong, and the right thing to do is to be out of the long position. I guess we will have to wait until tomorrow to see a clearer picture of the mkt.

Friday, May 06, 2005

Simsci 6 May 05, F - 2569

So far, the high for today is 2572. As the high was made on the target date, I will take it that this could be the top which I was watching for ie. time to go short.
I will allow the possibility of a higher top coming in on Monday 9/5. After that if the mkt continues to show strength, I will be very defensive.

Thursday, May 05, 2005

Simsci 5 May 05, Th - price 2536

Simsci has been trading in very narrow ranges lately - rather hard to trade, especially for those who are day trading.

From my posting of 27 April:
"I'll be watching early May (6/5F) for a top. If it turns out to be a top below 2608, that would indicate more weakness ahead."

We are now just one day before 6/5 F. Since the low of 2464 (18/4), the mkt made it's highest level today at 2547 (note: 26 Apr - April contract high 2555, but May contract high only 2540). I am still looking for a top on 6/5 F or 9/5 M, but would prefer to see the mkt go above 2555 first.

Taiwan 5 May 05, Th - price 2486

The Taiwan mkt shot up to 2501 high today. I had thought that this week would see a slight decline in the mkt before it turns around up again. However, all the mkt did was a very small swing down to 2416 low yesterday, before the power-up today.

As I see it, the move from 2315 low (21/4) to 2501 today has been a bit too fast. So I don't think it can go much higher (perhaps up to 2530 ?) before having a reaction.

In the big picture, in the next few weeks, if we see a upward creeping mkt, it could be pointing to a breakout on the upside - above the 2627 top.

Monday, May 02, 2005

Taiwan 2 May 05 - price 2405

I was mentioning about the halfway point of 2410 on the way up from 2315, that it is impt to see whether that level is crossed convincingly. So far the mkt made a high of 2422 (May contract) and then closed at 2405 last week, just below the impt level of 2410. The outlook is still unclear.

When the mkt opens on 3 May, it would probably try to cross 2410 again. However, for the short term (next few days), my bias is for the mkt to move down. Will have to see whether any move down is significant or just a minor dip before moving up. As I said previously, if the mkt is going to break out on the upside, the next few weeks should see the mkt continue to move up steadily.

Thursday, April 28, 2005

Nikkei 28 Apr 05 - price 10955

The nikkei mkt has been trading in a range for more than a year. The channel that it's moving in is currently between 12200 and 10680 (roughtly). That means the current price is near the lower end of the channel. However, the mkt has not broken below the channel yet, so we will have to wait and see.

Overall, my expectation for the Nikkei is for an upward move until the last qtr of the year. But, looking at the ranging mkt, I don't really want to put much emphasis on this mkt until a clearer trend is shown.

Wednesday, April 27, 2005

Simsci 27 Apr 05 - price 2524 (May cont)

Since last posting of 14 Apr, Simsci has made a low of 2464 on 18 Apr M.
Overall the mkt seems to be holding up quite well. The opening of the year was 2461, and the midpoint between the extremes turning points 3505 & 1436 is 2470. These are probably among the reasons why the low came in at 2464.

I'll be watching early May (6/5F) for a top. If it turns out to be a top below 2608, that would indicate more weakness ahead.

However, my long term outlook for the simsci is positive. I expect the mkt to move up to higher levels into next year.

Tuesday, April 26, 2005

Taiwan 26 Apr 05 - current price 2406

Was watching for a low either on 22/4 F or 25 /4 M. As it turned out, the low came in at 2315 on 21/4 Th, one day earlier. This makes it a little harder to read the market ie. is the 2315 low going to hold? I would feel more comfortable with the turns coming in on the "right" date.

The next level to watch on the way up is around 2410 (between 2193 & 2627). Impt to see whether the mkt is able to cross that level convincingly. If the 2315 level is going to be the final bottom, then the next several weeks will need to show an upward trend, followed by a breakout on the upside.

Thursday, April 21, 2005

Nikkei 21 Apr 05 Price10825

Previous post: Nikkei 14 Apr 05 Price 11555.
"Today Nikkei dipped down to 11470 low. At this level, it may be time to go long.
Two possible scenarios. First is for mkt to make a bottom around here (today or tomorrow) - this is my preferred scenario. Second is for the mkt to range trade for another week or so and make a bottom around 25 Apr. As for price, the 11470 low today looks like a possible bottom; even if it goes lower, the year opening of 11450 should have strong support and I don't think it will below that by much."
My preferred scenario did not turn out right. Obviously the 11470 level did not hold. Instead, when the mkt broke the year opening level of 11450, it was downhill all the way.
However, I'm still watching around 25 Apr (M) for a possible bottom. If the main trend of the mkt is to get back on an uptrend, this bottom will have to be the turning point.

Having a forecast doesn't mean that one trades blindly, assuming that the forecast will work. I will still have to trade based on the intrad-day movements and carry the trade along if and when the mkt shows that it is in accordance with the forecast.

Tuesday, April 19, 2005

Taiwan 19 Apr 05 Price 2365

Have not been posting very much on Taiwan Index.

On a big picture, this mkt seems to be setting itself up for a major move to the upside. The bottom is either 2336 (18/4) or perhaps slightly lower on 22/4 F or 25/4 M. In any case, I will only be looking to go long - no more shorts.

Simsci & Nikkei are also looking interesting, but for now attention is on Taiwan.

Thursday, April 14, 2005

Simsci 14 Apr 05 Price 2547

Today, Simsci made a low of 2540. As mentioned in the previous posting, the 2543 level is impt, and today the mkt was trading around this level for almost the whole day.

The closing level of 2547 (around the impt level of 2543) seems to indicate that the mkt has not made up it's mind which way to go.

Nikkei 14 Apr 05 Price 11555

Today Nikkei dipped down to 11470 low. At this level, it may be time to go long.

Two possible scenarios. First is for mkt to make a bottom around here (today or tomorrow) - this is my preferred scenario. Second is for the mkt to range trade for another week or so and make a bottom around 25 Apr. As for price, the 11470 low today looks like a possible bottom; even if it goes lower, the year opening of 11450 should have strong support and I don't think it will below that by much.

Tuesday, April 12, 2005

Simsci 12 Apr 05 Price 2561

Simsci made high of 2592 on 8 Apr, F. It wasn't an easy short as it closed near the high, at 2591 and the position is over the weekend.

At this point, the mkt seems to be rather uncertain. Perhaps people are waiting to see whether the casino will get the go-ahead on 18 Apr.

If 2608 high (18 Mar) is to be a major top, then the mkt should be falling below 2495 as a confirmation. As always, there is a possibility of the mkt moving the other direction ie. upwards. If 2608 is crossed, then an important time to watch for a top is early May.

Need to see whether the mkt will go below 2543 level; that is the midpoint between 2495 and 2592 and is impt.

Thursday, April 07, 2005

Simsci 7 Apr 05 Current level 2579

As thought, Simsci did a retracement up from the low of 2495 on 30 Mar.

On the big picture, I'm still looking at 2608 high on 18 Mar as a major top - until the mkt proves otherwise by crossing above that level.

As such, I think tomorrow may be the right time to go short, probably after it has gone above 2580 (high for today).

Wednesday, March 30, 2005

Taiwan Index 30 Mar 05 (W)

Since the high of 2627 on 14 Feb, Tw has fallen quite substantially, touched 2434 this morning. Overall, still expecting an uptrend. The low of 2385 on 25 Jan is very critical; if the mkt goes below that, the uptrend forecast will not be valid anymore.

I think around here may be a good time to look to go long.

Tuesday, March 29, 2005

Simsci 29 Mar 05 (Tu)

We crossed the 3rd week of March, the impt period mentioned in earlier postings. A top of 2608 actually came in on 18 Mar (F). I had expected the top on about 22 Mar (Tu), but 18 Mar as a top is quite acceptable.

Question now is whether the 2608 top will turn out to be a major turning point, or just a 2/3 week reaction. That remains to be seen, but my bias is towards a declining market from hereon.

So far, the cash market (STI) shows low volume in the decline ie. no panic selling. I think there may be a possibility of a retracement up first before the next big move down.

Friday, March 18, 2005

Simsci 18 Mar 05

Simsci finally crossed the high of 2595 (18 Feb). The impt period of around 22 March obviously would not be a bottom (low probability, as thought), but is more likely to be a top.

Those holding long position would need to exercise caution starting Monday 21/3. It's probably ok to hold long position over the weekend, especially if the closing today is firm. But next few days the mkt may be vulnerable to a reversal and decline.

For the time being, I'm concentrating on the Simsci (ignoring Nikkei & Taiwan) as an impt period for the Simsci is just round the corner.

Wednesday, March 16, 2005

Simsci 16 Mar 05

Approaching the 3rd week of March, target date.

Today's low of 2546 appears to be a possible low before the runup to 22/24 March. Will have to see whether that turns out to be a major top (above 18 Feb 2595 high). Any long position from here should be made with stop below today's low, just in case the mkt runs down to the 22/24 March instead. If that happens (low probability?), then the mkt could be signaling a new wave of uptrend.

Thursday, March 10, 2005

Simsci 10 Mar 05

Since the beginning of my posting (the first posting, in fact), I have been talking about the Simsci making a major turn around middle to 3rd week of March. Based on the pattern of the market I thought it is more likely to be a top. So far, Simsci has been climbing slowly, but steadily.

We are now just before the forecast period. I am still expecting a top, but it has not been a runaway market like that leading to the 3505 extreme high in Jan 2000.

Thursday, March 03, 2005

Taiwan Index 3 Mar 05

I have been reviewing the Taiwan index lately, and have not been spending as much time on the Nikkei or Simsci.

Taiwan index looks interesting, and as usual, the mkt has gone through extreme high (4603 18 Feb 2000) and extreme low (1543 3 Oct 2001). That's an extremely big drop of 66% in less than 2 years.

Overall, I see the mkt on an uptrend. The low of 2385 on 25/1/05 is very critical, ie. for the uptrend to continue it must not break below that level. If it does, I would have to withdraw my forecast of an uptrend for this year.

Tuesday, February 22, 2005

Starting up on Taiwan Index

I've decided to include the Taiwan Index as one of the markets to trade, apart from the Nikkei and Simsci. The main reason is that the Taiwan Index shows relatively bigger ranges, on both intraday and long range movements. As a comparison to Simsci, the high/low for Taiwan in 2004 was 3064/2193 (range of 871 pts) whereas the Simsci high/low for the same period was 2480/2049 (range of 431 pts).

But having to keep track of 3 markets would mean that I would not be able to keep close attention to all of them all the time. Hopefully, I would be able to focus on the right market ie. the one that is trending well.

The 14th of Feb has come and gone. As it turned out, Simsci did turn down from a high of 2589 on 14 Feb; but that lasted only 2 days and only went down to 2557 (16 Feb). Since then, it has crossed to new high (2595 on 18 Feb) and is now back down to 2547 low today.

For the Nikkei, there were 3 days of high prices 11680, 11685, 11695 on 14/15/16 Feb. From there the mkt turned down for only 2 days, to 11545 on 18 Feb.

Definitely not easy to trade both the Simsci & Nikkei this past week or so. That's why I'm looking into the Taiwan index ... looking to more interesting times in the markets.

Sunday, February 13, 2005

Nikkei & Simsci 13 Feb 05

Nikkei

I was looking for a top for Nikkei (above 11475 high of 31 Jan) in early Feb. The mkt finally crossed the 11475 high on 7 Feb, but no top was formed in early Feb; in fact, the Nikkei continued to be supported above the year's opening level of 11450.
It looks possible that the top may be delayed to around 14 Feb, Valentine's day. Note that this is about a year from last year's low of 10290 (10 Feb 04). I would be watching for opportunity to sell tomorrow (or the day after).

Simsci

Simsci has had a bit of a runup to 2567 since "correcting" slightly to 2508 on 4 Feb. With the strong US mkt on Friday, we should see a new high tomorrow. However, I would be cautious abt buying after the runup last week. Like the Nikkei, it is possible for the mkt to from a top tomorrow. However, the big picture is still for a top around the 3rd week of March.

Overall, around 14 Feb is impt to watch for both the Nikkei & Simsci.

Monday, February 07, 2005

Simsci 7 Feb 05

After hitting a high of 2530 on 2 Feb last week, the mkt only managed to "correct" down to 2508 on 4 Feb. A very shallow move down (22 points only), which I think may reflect the strength in the Simsci.
Today, the mkt continues to make new highs. Possibility of simsci continuing its upward march, all the way to the month of March. Wondering whether it will be a "mini runaway market", somewhat similar to the major runup to 3505 high in 3 Jan 2000.

Just a quote from the Bible: "What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun." Ecclesiastes 1:9.
To me, that sounds like what all markets do.

Wednesday, February 02, 2005

Simsci & Nikkei 2 Feb 05

Simsci made a new high of 2530 today. I would be very weary about going long at this high level. As the high was made in early Feb, there would be a possibility of a correction from around here. Would it be a sharp correction? Hard to tell, but I don't think it would be a long correction (several days perhaps).

Nikkei has not crossed 31 Jan high of 11475. I am looking for a possible top in early Feb ie. that hasn't happened yet. I would still be looking for a top above 11475, perhaps in the next one or two days.

Tuesday, February 01, 2005

Nikkei & Simsci 1 Feb 2005

Nikkei is still trading in tight range.
It is possible for the Nikkei to form a top in early Feb; esp if yesterday's high of 11475 is crossed slightly and the mkt subsequently falls back below 11450. As mentioned in my earlier post, 11450 level is impt and so far it seems to be a resistance point.


Similarly, Simsci could also be making a top (minor?) around early Feb; but after the pullback, I think there would be further upside.

Monday, January 31, 2005

Simsci 31 Jan 2005

Simsci has been stubbornly holding on to recent high levels. High so far is 2511, and currently mkt is trading in the 2500+ level. Seems to indicate strength.

However, I'm looking at simsci having a reaction (at least a minor one) sometime in the first half of February. Even if the 2511 high is crossed by a slight margin, the reaction should come before the upmove resumes. That reaction would probably provide an opportunity to get in on the long side. Target is still for a top in March.

Thursday, January 27, 2005

Simsci 27 Jan 2005

The whole month of January has seen Simsci locked in a small range (2461 to 2511 so far). Just bobbing up and down, probably wrong footing many trend-following systems. It has definitely been not easy to trade.

On the bigger picture, I'm still looking at the Simsci reaching for a top in March. Let's hope that the ranges will be bigger, and hopefully more tradeable. Nothing else much to say, in such a market.

Monday, January 24, 2005

Nikkei 24 Jan 2005

Nikkei is looking like it may make a bottom around here. Based on the ets, last Friday's low was 11205. Would prefer to buy somewhere below that level. (although note that based on the open outcry, Friday's low of 11215 has been broken early this morning? ... the confusion of having dual market.)
A bottom today or tomorrow would look ok. But if the Nikkei falls below the 11000 level, that may indicate a rather weak market.
The 11450 level is very important - whether the mkt is able to recover to and cross that level, we will have to watch carefully.

Wednesday, January 19, 2005

Downed by the system ......

My computer system was apparently hit by a virus. This happened right after I downloaded the Microsoft antispyware program - what an irony!

Tried for several days to clean out the system, but the operating system was corrupted. Had no choice but to re-install the os and restart everything on a clean slate. The whole process was not as difficult as I thought it would be. Anyway, I'm now back and the system seems better than before.

As for the simsci, I'm increasingly coming to the conclusion that the market will run up to a top sometime in March. Something like the runup to 3505 all time high in 3 Jan 2000 - but of course not as strong. If that is to happen, then the pick up should come soon after the chinese new year?

Wednesday, January 12, 2005

Nikkei

Nikkei still within trading range.
Expect a little more upside, ie. 11 Jan high 11590 likely to be crossed. How much higher will it go? Will be watching 11855 level and 11985 closely.
The year started at 11450 (Nikkei ets), which will make that level important. But the stop level for buying would be below 11385 low.

Monday, January 10, 2005

Thoughts on simsci

Simsci didn't do much today, closing slightly lower at 2489 but on low volume - doesn't look like it's going down much.
Possible for mkt to push up slightly higher (even above 2509); I think there is a possibility of seeing a top in Jan, especially if the high forms around 3rd week of Jan. My emphasis is more on timing rather than on price. If one sells around the time the top is formed, it doesn't really matter whether you got the price right.
If my posting doesn't make much sense, it's ok ... we all use different methods of analysis. And my blog is not meant to be advice - like I said, it's just for the fun of it.




Saturday, January 08, 2005

Will simsci continue its run?

That's a good question which everyone, including myself, would like to have the answer.

On the big picture, simsci crossed the major tops of 2348 (5/3/02) and 2350 (2/3/04) and have been holding well; seems to be indicating strength. The year started off at 2461. That level should be impt; if that is broken cleanly, may indicate a rundown.

7/1 Friday high 2509, but closed lower at 2494. There's a bit of a weakness based on the closing. 7/1 could turn out to be a possible high, but I would be more comfortable to see a top around 3rd or 4th of Jan - 3505 all time high on 3rd Jan also. Selling should be done with stop above 2509.

Managed to add in a link to CNA forum (with some help) - quite an achievement for a low tech person like me.


Friday, January 07, 2005

First posting

Just created the blog. Have never created a blog before. Decided to try it out - to put in my thoughts on nikkei & simsci.

Not tech savvy. As such, my blog will be very basic and simple. Hope to improve along the way.

Simsci:
Yesterday (6/1 Th) simsci crossed into new high, reaching 2507. Looks like it should be heading higher.
An important time to watch for the simsci is around mid to 3rd week of Mar this year. As to whether a top or bottom will form, it is too early to speculate. Will decide when we are nearer the date.

Nikkei:
Not much to say about the Nikkei. Effectively, the mkt is still trading in a range - between last year's high and low (12200 & 10290).

That's all for my first posting.